In a new statewide poll released by civic technology company icitizen, the Republican presidential nominee is the clear favorite among registered voters in Tennessee.
“Even though the ballot currently stands at 49% Trump, 33% Clinton and 18% undecided, there is still a lot up in the air,” said Cynthia Villacis, icitizen Polling Analyst. “With almost a fifth of voters unsure of who to cast their ballot for, there’s a possibility for a more fluid and interesting race as the November general election draws closer. After the Republican National Convention, Trump led Clinton by over 10 points among Independent voters, suggesting an RNC-bump that crosses party identification.”
Details with the Poll
The icitizen Tennessee Poll provides a non-partisan, representative read of public opinion on pressing legislative and social issues in Tennessee. This installment of the Tennessee Poll examines November general election matchups, public policy issues such as defense, transportation, crime and public safety, as well as attitudes toward the state, the economy and personal finances.
Executive Summary
- In a head-to-head general election presidential ballot, Republican nominee Donald Trump holds a commanding lead (+17 points) over Hillary Clinton among registered voters in Tennessee. The ballot stands at 49% Trump, 33% Clinton and 18% undecided.
- Nearly two-thirds of registered voters in Tennessee favor the U.S. sending ground troops to combat ISIS.
- Over 8 in 10 Tennesseans favor a federal law that would block firearm purchases if an individual is on a “terrorist no-fly list.”
- Just over half of Tennesseans think that racism in their communities has gotten worse in the past 10 years; ninety-two percent who agree that it is “dangerous to be a law enforcement officer these days.”
- On the issue of state transit, a plurality of respondents selected “dangerous drivers” as the most concerning issue, with nearly two-thirds of respondents who say dangerous drivers were a “major issue” in Tennessee.
Polling Methodology
The survey was conducted online from July 25-27, 2016 among 655 adults statewide, including 531 registered voters. In order to achieve an accurate demographic representation of the public, the data were sampled and weighted to U.S. Census benchmarks for gender, age, region, education, income and race.
Key Findings for 2016 November General Election Races
In the head-to-head general election presidential ballot, Republican nominee Donald Trump sees a 17-point lead in Tennessee, due in large part to the consolidation of not only the Republican base, but also among Independents, a sizeable portion whom support Donald Trump. Post- Republican National Convention, among Independent voters, Trump led Clinton by over 10 points, suggesting an RNC-bump that crosses party identification.
Among registered voters:
- Donald Trump owns the most commanding advantage over Hillary Clinton with a 17-point lead on a head-to-head ballot. Trump has a strong hold over Independents, with 40% supporting him compared to 23% of Independents who support Hillary Clinton. Trump outpaces party identification in Tennessee by eight points (88% of Republicans favor him compared to 80% of Democrats who favor Hillary Clinton). The ballot stands at 49% Trump, 33% Clinton and 18% undecided.
- Following the Republican National Convention and during the Democratic National Convention, among Trump supporters, 32% favor him “strongly,” while only 23% percent of Clinton supporters favor her with the same intensity. Twelve percent of Tennesseans are still purely undecided, giving the possibility for a more fluid race as the November general election draws closer.
- Demographically, support for Donald Trump cuts across various groups and is highest among males, whites, college-educated, high-income voters, and those living in East Tennessee.
- Interestingly, Trump outpaces Clinton also when it comes to political ideology (77% of conservatives support Trump, while only 68% of liberals support Clinton).
Key Findings on Tennessee Policy
- Over 8 in 10 respondents reported seeing instances of drivers texting while driving, and over half of respondents reported seeing pedestrians texting while crossing streets in the past month.
- Thinking about local law enforcement, though 92% of Tennesseans believe that it is dangerous to be a law enforcement officer these days, there is an overwhelming confidence in officers. Seventy-eight percent of voters have a “great deal of confidence” in their state and local law enforcement and 82% voters feel safe around law enforcement officers.
- Sixty-seven percent of Tennesseans favor the expansion of citizen oversight boards. These are boards composed of civilians who are not affiliated with government and tasked with reviewing citizen complaints and proposing reforms. Demographically, support crosses lines of gender, race and age and is highest among Democrats, likely voters, liberals and moderates.
